COVID-19 – Michael Krahn

My Love for Canada Is Overwhelmed with Lament

“Even if Canada falls into ruin, the true Kingdom to which you belong will not have shrunk one bit. It will still be the same eternal and glorious Kingdom it has always been.”

(This article was originally published at The Gospel Coalition Canada)

We live in a dark period of Canadian history. These last days have broken my heart as I’ve watched the many on-the-ground live streams and news reports about what was happening in Ottawa.

I have experienced a mixture of anger and lament that has overflowed into tears more than once.

I Love Canada

You see as far as kingdoms go, my primary loyalty is to Jesus and his Kingdom. Canada is a distant second but nonetheless still second. And after observing my reactions to recent events, I wonder if perhaps my country is a closer second than I thought! Canada is a nation I love so much that I have been brought to tears.

We are not large in population, but I am not sure any other nation is known for having hearts as big as ours.

We keep the peace and exude humility.

In other countries, displaying our flag makes us instant friends.

Even as I write, moments of personal Canadian pride well up in my eyes. I love Canada; I am proudly Canadian.

But the tears I shed over last weekend were of a different kind because what I saw did not match the detailed character profile I have assembled in my memory from my innumerable positive and, to this point, very common and normal Canadian experiences.

Canada is a nation that is respected around the world for many good reasons. Many of us take this for granted and seem to more often focus on Canada’s failures and imperfections than on its many honourable traits.

But we should seek to be honest and to say all the words – the words of criticism and the words of appreciation.

Repentance Required

In 2 Chronicles 7:14, God says that “if my people who are called by my name humble themselves, and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sin and heal their land.”

This was a promise made to Israel as a nation, not to Canada as a nation; Canada as a nation is not “God’s chosen people.” But within this nation are people who belong to the Kingdom of God. And if those of us who claim to belong to that Kingdom will humble ourselves, pray, and seek God’s face and turn from the paths that lead in the opposite direction, God will hear from heaven and forgive our sins.

And if we do this, inevitably, healing will follow. We are going to need A LOT of healing in the years to come. That means we are going to need agents of healing, and of peace, and of reconciliation. And if there is to be repentance and healing and unity in our nation, it should start in its churches.

And yet we find ourselves in a moment where new divisions are still taking shape. How many of us are at odds with someone right now that we never thought we’d be at odds with?

What’s worse, I sense that we are not even finished hurting each other yet, which means that healing cannot begin. We cannot let this become the new normal in the body of Christ.

Long-standing friendships are cracking under the strain of immense pressure from all sides.

Agreeing to disagree seems to have been taken off the table of options.

Neutrality on any issue is now considered cowardice on every issue.

Grief and Lament

What I am experiencing most these last four weeks is the deep sorrow of grief, and that is now working its way out into lament, which is a passionate expression of the same.

So here is my attempt at public lament, while trying to avoid the trap of side-taking and the who’s right-and-who’s-wrong warfare that seems to have overtaken every moment of time in the public square for the last four weeks.

There are certainly issues involved where one must take a side and clearly, one side is more correct than the other on any number of points. I don’t mind discussing, debating, and processing those, but not here and not now. Here and now is the time to lament the drama, damage, and division that the last two years, and especially the last four weeks, have brought upon us.

1. I lament the kingdom confusion that is present in the hearts and minds of many Christians.

To ply the old cliche: this might be where we live, but this is not our home (John 18:36; Phil. 3:20; Heb. 13:14). Even so, I do not lament those fiercely patriotic Canadians whose hearts are committed to the Kingdom of God while also loving the nation of Canada.

We should fight for Canada as as good citizens. Even while in exile we should seek the good of the nation in which we live (Jeremiah 29:4–5,7). But we must stop fighting for Canada as if it is our only hope for peace or salvation.

Even if Canada falls into ruin, the true Kingdom to which you belong will not have shrunk one bit. It will still be the same eternal and glorious Kingdom it has always been.

2. I lament the deep divisions that have formed in families and churches.

Satan has successfully agitated; he has baited us in opposite directions and we have taken the bait and are now being pulled apart by forces we don’t fully comprehend. It is not too late for any of us to apply the supernatural love of Christ to this natural strife.

3. I lament the excessive force used by my government and the excessive defiance of some of my fellow citizens.

I do not lament all use of force by my government because the use of force is a duty given by God to those in authority (see Romans 13). I know that those in authority will answer for every misuse and misappropriation of this delegated authority.

Neither do I lament every expression of defiance by my fellow citizens. We are commanded to speak the truth in love (Eph. 4:15), and we are not exempt from practicing this command under any circumstances. But those who defy lightly and speak carelessly will answer for every word (Matt. 12:36).

4. I lament the labelling and the unrestrained anger of both the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister’s fiercest opponents.

Our Prime Minister has viciously berated those he is called to serve, addressing them with a disdain that is unbecoming of a man in his position. In the streets, many have flown the flag of disdain in response, and this is no better.

I do not lament the many genuine Christians who attended the protests to speak the truth in love and pray for all involved, equally for those in the streets as for those in the seats of parliament.

But if you consider the Prime Minister your enemy, show him the love he is not showing you, as you are commanded to do (Matt 5:44). Show him honour even as he dishonours you, as you are commanded to do (1 Peter 2:17).

“Know this,” the biblical writer James says, “let every person be quick to hear, slow to speak, slow to anger; for the anger of man does not produce the righteousness of God” (James 1:19-20).

Unrighteous anger will never move the dial in the right direction but the grace of Christ can transform the hardest heart.

What Are You Lamenting?

I cannot help but think I am not alone in this lament. Will you join me in lament and prayer for Canada and the churches within Canada?

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Michael Krahn is the Lead Pastor of the EMMC church in Aylmer, Ontario, where he has served for the last 13 years. He has been married to Anne Marie for almost 27 years and together they have three daughters (19,18,15). You can find more of Michael’s writing at www.michaelkrahn.com or connect on social media at @Michael_G_Krahn (Twitter), pastor.michael.krahn (IG), and Michael.George.Krahn (Fb)

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On COVID Restrictions, Vaccines, and Trucker Convoys

We cannot – and certainly will not – make peace by trying to minimize our love for Jesus for the sake of being at peace with those who do not love Him. But we do unnecessary violence to the cause of peace when we invent new points of division with other believers for the sake of unity with those who share our opinions but not our faith.

“Do not think that I have come to bring peace to the earth. I have not come to bring peace, but a sword. For I have come to set a man against his father, and a daughter against her mother, and a daughter-in-law against her mother-in-law. And a person’s enemies will be those of his own household.”
Matthew 10:34-36

What Jesus speaks of in Matthew 10:34-36 sounds a lot like what many families – church families as well as biological ones – are experiencing right now. We have disputes about restrictions, division over vaccines, and disagreements regarding the trucker convoy.

But Jesus is speaking here of the inevitable division between those who follow him and those who don’t, between those who believe the gospel and those who reject it as truth, and not about the unnecessary division between people with different opinions about COVID restrictions, vaccines, and trucker convoys.

Maintaining the Unity of the Faith

You can believe that restrictions were necessary or too extreme, that vaccines are crucial or unneeded, that the trucker convoy is a great good or a dangerous endeavour – you can believe any of these things and still be united in Christ with every other person who genuinely follows him. And in the interest of protecting this precious unity, regularly examine your own motives and words.

Are you making these secondary issues primary, thereby destroying the unity of Christ’s body for reasons not found in God’s word?

Are you making your personal opinions on these matters the measure by which other believers are judged unfaithful and unworthy?

Are you twisting the Scriptures, even subtly, to support your political aims?

Are you adding insult to disunity by slandering the very ones who follow Christ just as they do?

These practices must stop.

Your Primary Unity

If you are someone who follows Christ, you are in unity with all those who also follow him. This unity with other believers must be primary over unity with anyone else. To adopt secondary issues as primary ones is to compromise your loyalty to the gospel. And to go further and elevate these secondary issues to primary ones is a betrayal of the gospel itself.

The coming of Jesus and the commitment he commanded is a necessary flashpoint in many families. The light of this flash should illuminate the truth that Jesus says we cannot follow him if our loyalty to any person, protest, movement or ideology is greater than our love and loyalty to him.

Let There Be No Fellowship of Light With Darkness

So when he who is the Truth divides one against another, we must choose to follow Him instead of making temporal peace with those around us. He alone can change their hearts. We cannot – and certainly will not – make peace by trying to minimize our love for Jesus for the sake of being at peace with those who do not love Him. But we do unnecessary violence to the cause of peace when we invent new points of division with other believers for the sake of unity with those who share our opinions but not our faith.

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Jordan Peterson, Deconstruction, Marvel’s Multiverse, TikTok Timeline Shifters, and the Kingdom of God – Points of Interest for January 24, 2022

This is a weekly roundup of pieces I read on other sites around the web. Click on the titles to open the articles in a new tab. Happy reading!

Jordan Peterson: Open the damn country back up, before Canadians wreck something we can’t fix

A scathing assessment of the handling of COVID by Canada’s politicians:

“There are no risk-free paths forward. There is only one risk, or another. Pick your poison: that’s the choice life often offers. I am weary of living under the increasingly authoritarian dictates of a polity hyper-concerned with one risk, and oblivious to all others. And things are shaking around us.”

What do you think? Is he right?

Is Deconstruction the Same as Deconversion? A Few Reflections on Reforming the Church

Deconstruction/deconversion has been an area of interest for me for many years. And I agree with the assessment made here:

“For many, it [deconstruction] simply means that we should ask hard questions about whether the version of Christianity we are following is consistent with the Scriptures, or with historic Christian beliefs through the centuries.”

I went through a process like this myself in my 20s and I’m glad that I did. It was long, hard, and sometimes scary work, but in the end I emerged with a stronger faith.

Marvel’s Multiverse, TikTok Timeline Shifters, and the Kingdom of God

“Just as a supernova explodes a star into trillions of nebulous particles, a disenchanted world explodes the human mind into an endless, anxiety-inducing nebula of alternative selves. No one needed theoretical physicists to propose the multiverse. The modern mind was already living in one.”

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Are People Being Hospitalized With COVID or Because of COVID?

This is an important question, and one we need to process.

Here’s one of the pages I check on a daily basis to try to get a handle on the current situation in Ontario. If you sift through the data on that page you can better understand where we’re at and some of the possible reasons for the actions that are being taken.

Among the numerous other helpful charts there, I’m glad to see that as of today they added the following charts because they bring clarity to the “with COVID or because of COVID?” question.

Counting cases has always been somewhat subjective. There is no way to know the absolute number of cases without everyone being tested. So we’ve relied on harder numbers like hospital and ICU admissions. Now it looks like, with Omicron, hospitalizations are no longer the most trustworthy indicator either.

Almost 50% of people being admitted to the hospital are “incidental COVID positives” – meaning they are admitted for non-COVID reasons but are found to have COVID upon arrival. But let’s not discount that completely – these folks still require extra resources due to their COVID-positive status so that they don’t infect others.

On the second chart, it seems that monitoring ICU admissions is still a reliable metric.

83% of people admitted to Ontario ICUs with COVID were admitted because of COVID. So there is the answer to our question.

What sites and sources do you regularly consult to help make sense of the world as it pertains to COVID? Feel free to discuss in the comments. As always, ask anything, but keep it civil and reasonable.

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The Sin of Trusting in Politics For Salvation

The motive behind many of the cruel critiques of political leaders does not seem to be the securing of a more peaceful and quiet life. It seems to run more along the lines of securing political power and then retaining that power going forward. This is a very wrong turn. To be involved in politics, of course, is no sin, but to trust in politics for salvation certainly is.

God is always at work in human affairs for the good of his people and the glory of his name. This should inspire our confidence when we face the tough circumstances of the present and those yet to come. It is up to us to trust him, seek him, and act according to what he has revealed to us about his will.

The wisdom contained in God’s word is sufficient; we need no new revelation. We need no new instructions, especially when so much of what has already been commanded is not obeyed. What is needed instead is for us to return again and again to the timeless wisdom of Scripture, which is as relevant to us today as it was to those to whom it was originally written.

Praying For Politicians

Here is something he reveals in 1 Tim. 2:1-2: “First of all, then, I urge that supplications, prayers, intercessions, and thanksgivings be made for all people, for kings and all who are in high positions, that we may lead a peaceful and quiet life, godly and dignified in every way.”

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It is difficult to pray without hypocrisy for those whom you curse outside of your prayer time. Love, the Apostle Paul tells us, is the supreme virtue. Yet over these last years, while much truth has been spoken, too rarely has it been spoken in love. This has been especially evident in the overheated responses to the actions of leaders in politics and religion. As we go forward, we must commit firmly to the biblical principle that critique is in bounds, but cruelty is not.

Disrespecting The Authorities

In Canada, it often seems we are a little bit proud of how disrespectful we are of our governing authorities. This is certainly not the example of God’s servants in scripture, and so I think our attitudes about our relationship with and behaviour towards those who govern us could use a few corrections.

I have been guilty of this disrespect on occasion as well, and I have had to reshape my thinking and behaviour. The help we need in this area of our lives is found in Scripture. The words of Scripture and the examples of the stories we find there clearly expose many of us who think we have a license to speak and act disrespectfully to those who govern us. (Especially if they belong to a party with the wrong colour election sign, right?)

God’s Ambassadors

In 2 Cor. 5:20 we are called God’s ambassadors. We should act in ways befitting an ambassador. This means that we represent the one in ultimate authority in front of those who wield his delegated authority. And when we find we must speak up against something the governing authorities are doing, we do so as God’s representatives and we do so out of concern for God’s glory and for their souls.

The motive behind many of the cruel critiques of political leaders does not seem to be the securing of a more peaceful and quiet life. It seems to run more along the lines of securing political power and then retaining that power going forward. This is a very wrong turn. To be involved in politics, of course, is no sin, but to trust in politics for salvation certainly is.

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COVID Has Made Us Weary, But We Should Still Be Doing Good

If you are in a season that feels barren and fruitless, take heart – over time, if we are persistent in our pursuit of God and obedient to his will and plan, we will bear fruit. Now might be a time when you are being pruned and watered and weathered so that your fruit will be both sweeter and more abundant when the appointed season comes.

“As for you, brothers and sisters, do not grow weary in doing good.”
2 Thessalonians 3:13

Seldom in the world’s history has the entirety of humankind been subjected to such mind-numbing and soul-crushing stress and chaos that has led to such persistent weariness. During this time, on days when I’m feeling down, it’s easy to look for the fruits of my efforts and wonder if I’ve accomplished anything at all. On those weary days, progress seems painfully slow and tangible “results” seem like a barren field on a foggy morning. This is quite opposite of what we desire, isn’t it?

We would all love for our efforts to result in immediate, visible, tangible fruit, but fruit is a fitting metaphor, and it is no accident that this metaphor is employed frequently in Scripture. As Psalm 1 points out, the blessed person is like a tree planted by streams of water that yields its fruit in its season.

How the Wicked and the Righteous Grow

In Psalm 92 we see a clear contrast between the wicked and the righteous. In v7 we learn that “though the wicked sprout like grass and all evildoers flourish, they are doomed to destruction forever,” while in v12 we see that “the righteous flourish like the palm tree and grow like a cedar” that still bears fruit in old age and is ever full of sap and green (v14).

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The wicked have their day in the sun, their flash in the pan, their proverbial “15 minutes of fame.” They sprout like grass, which grows rapidly but provides little value and fades away just as quickly as it appeared. Although these people are often among the most prominent in the world and seem to be successful by worldly standards (we might even envy them sometimes), in the end, such people are doomed to destruction.

The righteous, however, are like palm or cedar trees. Palm trees take about five years to grow a trunk and another 15 years to produce coconuts, but they can live for hundreds of years. They represent slow growth and much fruit, just the opposite of grass.

Cedars are evergreen trees that can grow to over 150 ft and live up to 300 years. They are known for their alluring scent and have an ornamental quality because of their beauty. Cedar is also used for guitar tops and is known for its warm tone. Cedar trees represent beauty, warmth, and an inviting aroma. We might think of this aroma as “the fragrance of life” that is mentioned in 2 Cor. 2:16.

The Long Blessings of Slow Growth

In contrast to the wicked, the righteous grow slowly but they live long and fruitful lives. For such people, what often looks like a season of fruitlessness is actually a season of preparation. If we see a tree as only useful when there is ripe fruit to pick, we might see it as useless at all other times.

But trees are not useless during seasons when the fruit is not visibly emerging. During times of not bearing fruit, a tree is still being prepared to be fruitful: it is being pruned and watered and weathered, all of which will make the fruit sweeter and more abundant. Even the blessed person is not bearing fruit in all seasons but in the appointed season; there is a cyclical pattern to fruit-bearing.

If you are in a season that feels barren and fruitless, take heart – over time, if we are persistent in our pursuit of God and obedient to his will and plan, we will bear fruit. Now might be a time when you are being pruned and watered and weathered so that your fruit will be both sweeter and more abundant when the appointed season comes.

So, as for you, do not grow weary in doing good.

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The Deep Lack of Wisdom That COVID Has Revealed

The COVID period has revealed a deep lack of biblical wisdom among those who call themselves Christians. We have not been desperate for God’s wisdom, even while we eagerly consume the many doses of folly that invade our minds via social media. Do not be surprised if you are frustrated and do not know what to think if you have feasted on foolishness while starving yourself of real wisdom.

“Walk in wisdom toward outsiders,
making the best use of the time.”
Colossians 4:5

To walk in wisdom toward outsiders requires us to first seek wisdom from the right source, but too often our words are many while our prayers are few. We crave constant activity and the notoriety that comes along with our publicly visible efforts. We want to be seen and known, and not always with the most virtuous motives.

So we must not apply this command, as I sometimes have, in a way that justifies our burnout-inducing over-busyness. The causes of burnout are many and not all are sinful, but “burning out for Jesus” is not a game plan to be proud of; it is a sin to be repented of. Often the “best use of the time” is to sit and do nothing physically or audibly, to do nothing more than take in God’s word, to ask God questions, and to sit quietly as we wait for answers. He promises to supply wisdom if we ask.

Ask For Wisdom

In the men’s Bible study I lead on Thursday nights, we always start by having someone read James 1:5-8, which promises the following:

“If any of you lacks wisdom, let him ask God, who gives generously to all without reproach, and it will be given him. But let him ask in faith, with no doubting, for the one who doubts is like a wave of the sea that is driven and tossed by the wind. For that person must not suppose that he will receive anything from the Lord; he is a double-minded man, unstable in all his ways.”

After this reading, we pray, asking God with all the desperation we can muster to supply us with wisdom and to make us willing to receive it, learn from it, and then to go and live accordingly. Life is filled with constant challenges and we often feel unprepared. God’s promise to supply wisdom is not a promise made in vain. If we are humble enough to admit that we need wisdom and we ask for it, he will give it to us – generously!

Making the Best Use of the Time

The command to “make the best use of the time” frequently interrupts my days and my thoughts. It is easy to misunderstand this statement as a command to constant busyness, but if we understand it this way we will fail to live as Jesus did. We will not take times of solitude to spend with the Father. We will not rest as often as needed.

We will flit about, feasting on one bit of information that is presented to us, and then another morsel that is diametrically opposed. Instead of gaining wisdom, we reap confusion. And then we distribute our confusion to others, perpetuating a downward spiral of frustration.

The COVID period has revealed a deep lack of biblical wisdom among those who call themselves Christians. We have not been desperate for God’s wisdom, even while we eagerly consume the many doses of folly that invade our minds via social media. Do not be surprised if you are frustrated and do not know what to think if you have feasted on foolishness while starving yourself of real wisdom.

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Aylmer on the Verge of Violence: A Plea for Civility

It grieves me to see our town on the verge of violence, but that is where we’re at. You could see hints of this at the rally/march in November. There were several heated moments that almost boiled over. Things have been tense ever since, and the events of this past Sunday morning should raise the alarm for all residents of Aylmer. It’s only a matter of time before we see real violence break out in our town if this is not addressed.

I have found the last 24 hours quite difficult. Aylmer is the town I grew up and went to school in. It’s the town I returned to as a pastor a dozen years ago now. Ours has always been a pleasant and friendly town, and not particularly newsworthy. But now we are newsworthy, receiving local, regional, and national coverage regularly. It is safe to say that the events of 2020 have done (likely irreparable) damage to the reputation of our community. And we seem to be reaching a new threshold of concern.

Why is the tension in our town escalating?

The church north of town has clearly been spoiling for a fight for some time. While I am sympathetic to some of their principles, their practice of drowning these principles in waves of incendiary rhetoric is something I detest. This escalates tension.

The police, early on at least, seem to have handled the church’s provocations with inconsistency at best, leading to more opportunities for publicity for the church. This escalates tension. (It should be noted that in the video evidence that exists of Sunday’s events, the officers seem to be a model of courtesy and restraint under very trying conditions.)

Paragraph retracted. See explanation here.

We have the counter-protesters who are equally angry, equally outraged and in some cases, equally willing to take the confrontation to the next level. Included with this lot is the creepy, mysterious, and anonymous “Plague Pastor” video star, who decries the church’s condemnable actions while promoting his/her own xenophobic biases and implicit calls for violence. This certainly escalates tension.

The protesters – a combination of locals and out-of-town “protest tourists” – lack focus but not anger, outrage or disrespect. So many varied grievances gathered under one tent is like so much dry grass around a shortening candle. This escalates tension.

Where does all this tension go?

All this escalated tension is on full display every minute of the day on social media, where every conversation seems to end in conflict, where the benefit of the doubt is never given, and where judgments are made before both sides of the story are heard. From there this tension works its way into our stores and restaurants, where people are short on patience, often assuming the worst about each other, and sometimes openly serving up abusive insults about the ethnic heritage of some of their fellow citizens.

These are not normal or acceptable boundaries for civil disagreement, least of all among those who claim to be followers of Jesus. We have what seems to be a cult of protest on one side and a cult of counter-protest on the other. Neither one represents the majority while both scream at the top of their lungs, staking their claim to be, apparently without irony, the silent (or silenced) majority. I suspect neither one would win an open vote with the townspeople if given a third choice somewhere – anywhere – between the two.

What a mess.

More Than a Mess

But now it is more than a mess; now it’s a public danger. What has come to be a weekly circus north of town is quickly evolving into something far more serious. There is a real potential for open physical conflict.

Back to the events that unfolded this past Sunday, some of which you can see here or below.

The “protest tourists” are the main accelerants of this fire. I want to draw your attention to one moment that should cause us all grave concern. After the ticket was issued and the officer returned to his vehicle, the agitated crowd of angry men were instructed to not allow the officer to leave. One of the protestors shouted at the officer asking, among other things, where he lives and where his kids go to sleep. I would certainly feel threatened to have those words screamed at me, wouldn’t you?

Others stood behind his vehicle blocking his way. When the officer gets out his vehicle to ask those blocking his vehicle to move, someone near the camera seems to say these words around the 2:40 mark of the video:

“There’s more of us than them…” That’s a lit fuse right there.

Warning

Listen, anyone who would say such a thing needs to be uninvited from future protests. And if they come uninvited they should be notified that they are not welcome. They should certainly not be encouraged in any way. If this is not addressed this will turn from local to national to international news. That might be good business for the news outlets of our region, but it will be no good for the people of Aylmer.

We need to be reminded that we can disagree and still be friends. All but a few seem to have forgotten this fact. Friends can speak to each other bluntly but with care and respect, even when they disagree. It’s time we all start practicing this. There has been enough trauma to go around in 2020. If we don’t take quick action 2021 will be even more traumatic.

Is that what we want?

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COVID-19: Let’s Talk About This Supposed “Second Wave”

The “second wave” terminology alone is unhelpful. There certainly appears to be a second wave of confirmed cases, but we’re looking harder now and doing a lot more testing. There is not yet a second wave of deaths – and here’s hoping there never is.

COVID-19 is not a hoax. I personally know and have spoken to several people who have had it. It is an experience similar to but worse than the flu, seems to last longer, and may have permanent effects. Please continue to be careful and follow all reasonable directives from the government and public health officials.

All my graphs are based on data found here. Feel free to browse that data and confirm the below information for yourself.

Graphic 1 – Daily Tests (top) and Daily Confirmed Cases (bottom)

Looking at the bottom graph, it certainly seems like we’re having a second wave! And it’s true, there are a lot more confirmed cases of late. That seems to be the big news we hear on repeat. But that number should always be paired with the total number of tests being done. We are testing more and finding more, and that makes sense. And this needs to be mentioned as often as the “second wave” terminology.

How many people in Canada have COVID-19? The answer is: nobody knows. The only way we could know is if all 38 million of us take a test everyday and get the results immediately. The “confirmed cases” number is related in some way to the absolute number of cases, but we’re not exactly sure how.

This is why the “confirmed cases” number alone is insufficient to make the case that’s we’re having a second wave that looks exactly like (or worse) than the first one. This number tells us how many cases have been discovered but not how many cases there actually are right now. Are there more or fewer people with COVID-19 now than at the spring peak? Again, we don’t actually know.

Graphic 2 – Positive Tests (as a percentage of daily tests)

There has been a slight increase in positive cases as a percentage of daily tests. Currently, just under 2% of tests yield a positive result. That number peaked in April with over 10% positives. Keep in mind that this is not random sampling. The government is providing the following guidance on who should get tested:

“Contact your local health authority for advice about testing if you:

think you may have COVID-19
have been in contact with someone who has COVID-19”

Summary: Even among people who suspect they might already have COVID-19, the positive test percentage is currently under 2%.

Graphic 3: Daily Confirmed Cases (top) and Daily Deaths (bottom)

There are many more tests being done and more positive cases being found. What about the number of daily deaths? You can see that this number has barely moved and has been in the same range (below 10 per day) since around mid-July. This fact should be pointed out far more often than it is.

Graphic 4: Daily Deaths as a Percentage of Daily Confirmed Cases

Daily test rates are up and as a result the confirmed case rate is up, but the daily death rate is is not ruling parallel to the confirmed case rate like it did during the first wave. As you can see, the “second wave” terminology alone is unhelpful. There certainly appears to be a second wave of confirmed cases, but we’re looking harder now and doing a lot more testing. There is not yet a second wave of deaths – and here’s hoping there never is. Please notice that while the “Daily Confirmed Cases” peak is nearing the previous peak, at the same time the “Daily Deaths” average is down by 95% (177 on June 5 vs. 8 on Sept. 29).

Summary: Every death from an (at this point) incurable disease is a tragedy. But as I stated in my last update, hysteria and the possible ensuing mandated lockdowns based on inflated and incomplete information is going to do more harm than good.

Being constantly angry about all this isn’t helping either. I’ve been angry and frustrated at times. I choose to look at the data, make sense of it, and show what I’ve found to others. I believe that if enough people do that we can have a positive impact on our elected officials, who seem to (at times) make decisions based on media narratives instead of hard data.

So go forth and share what you’ve learned. Be a reasonable and calm presence in the lives of those who are drowning in a second wave of fear.

Stop Basking in the “I would have done things differently and we’d all be better off now” COVID-19 Delusion

I have found a variation of the “Hanlon’s razor” aphorism helpful in calming my inner cynic these last months: “Never attribute to conspiracy that which can be explained by incompetence.” We’ve all been living in the unknown and there are still no COVID-19 experts, there are only people gaining expertise. That means we are all various shades of incompetent in dealing with COVID-19.

Nobody knows FOR SURE what does/doesn’t work or what will/won’t work. I’m willing to follow the lead of our leaders so long as mandates and bylaws are equitably applied. I am encouraged by the attentiveness, responsiveness, and desire to get back to “normal” that I’ve seen to this point and I am confident that will continue (here in Ontario anyway).

Here are some thoughts on an article you can find here:

Making face masks mandatory is not backed by science or law

There is some good, solid thinking here… and some oddly cynical/paranoid musings.

Quote 1 – good question
“The curve is flat, and has been for months. COVID-19 deaths peaked in March or April (depending on which jurisdiction) and now continue to decline, even while increased testing exposes more “cases.” If masks were not required to flatten the curve, why should they be required now?”

Quote 2 – good point
“Masks impair communication, harshly impacting vulnerable people with mental-health disorders and developmental disabilities; the deaf and hard of hearing; those with cognitive impairments; and children. Dangerous miscommunications can result when those who suffer from hearing loss are not able to hear someone who is wearing a mask. These risks are even greater in multicultural settings, where a person often needs to see the speaker’s mouth and face to fully understand what is being said.”

Quote 3 – excellent point
“In Alberta and other jurisdictions, the average age of death from COVID is higher than the average life expectancy; COVID has little if any impact on life expectancy.”

Quote 4 – encouragement for those who are paranoid?
“What is “unprecedented” in 2020 is not COVID but a new social and political experiment of locking up an entire population of millions of healthy people…”

I do not understand the impulse of so many who are convinced that their government is conspiring against them. If that’s you, you need to put yourself in their shoes for the last 5 months. Imagine yourself making life-and-death decisions for millions of people with no playbook to consult. Leaders were, for the most part, working with the same partial and conflicting information the rest of us were.

It’s wonderful for those who are not leading to bask in the “I would have done things differently and we’d all be better off now” delusion while comfortably seated in the peanut gallery.

Every election cycle there are many opportunities to get involved by volunteering or running for office if you think you know better than our current elected officials. And I’m not saying that you don’t know better – so go for it!